Can Wisconsin Democrats Retake the State Senate?

We must fire Scott Walker this year. But that is not enough. In order to undo all of the anti-worker, anti-choice, anti-environment, anti-education damage inflicted on our state since 2011, we must also regain a majority in the legislature. 
 
Last week, we looked at the possibility of Democrats regaining the majority in the State Assembly. It will be very difficult for Dems to overcome the precision engineering of districts that give Republicans a huge electoral advantage. A flip of almost 12% of voters from red to blue in current GOP-held districts will be required to retake the Assembly. 

However, with flips of 17.7% and 15% in last week's special State Senate and Assembly elections, such a large Democratic turnabout is within reason in an anticipated November blue wave.

This week, we look at the Wisconsin State Senate. State Senators are elected for 4 year terms. Half of the seats in that body are decided by voters this year. With 33 seats in the Senate, only 17 are to be selected in November. These are the odd-numbered districts. The districts on the ballot this year were last decided in 2014.

The current State Senate consists of 18 Republicans, 14 Democrats, and one (formerly Republican) open seat. Democrats would need to hold all current seats and flip three additional seats from red to blue in order to reach a 17-16 majority. This is easier said than done.

Of course, if the US Supreme Court orders Wisconsin to re-draw fair district maps, all bets are off. But we can't count on justice to prevail. We may have to play the crooked cards we were dealt.

Of the 17 seats up this year, six are currently in Democratic hands. In an anticipated blue wave these should probably remain Democratic seats. These are Districts 3, 7, 15, 25, 27, and 31. The districts that are currently in GOP hands are 5, 9, 11, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 29, and 33. Let's look at at the recent electoral history of those 10 seats, as well as the open, historically Republican District 1.

District                 Current GOP Senator          % D in 2014 Election
1                            (open, formerly Lassee)              38.4 
5                                      Vukmir                   No Dem candidate
9                                      Lemahieu                          39.9
11                                    Nass                                  36.6
13                                    Fitzgerald                          37.3
17                                    Marklein                            44.9
19                                    Roth                                  42.8
21                                    Wanggaard                       38.4
23                                    Moulton                            38.8
29                                    Petrowski                          34.3
33                                    Kapanga                           26.1

None of these races will be easy for Democrats. Of the ten GOP State Senate districts in which Democrats fielded a candidate, only in Districts 17 and 19 did they get more than 40% of the 2014 vote. 

But 2014 was an especially good year for the GOP. It was Obama's second midterm election. Nationally, Republicans gained 3 governor seats, nine Senate seats, and twelve House seats. The State Senate numbers above are a likely GOP high-water mark. 

A 10.1% red-to-blue flip of voters is needed in 2018 for the Democrats to retake the State Senate. This is a slightly lower bar than the 12% voter flip needed to retake the Assembly.

However, in only one of these eleven races (District 5) has a Democrat already filed papers with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. There is certainly time for more Democratic candidates to register, as the paperwork deadline is June 1 to be on the primary ballot. Still, 28 people- including 21 Democrats- have already registered to run for Governor. It is a little disappointing that more A-list Democrats have not already stepped forward to contest these State Senate districts.

Last week's special elections showed that it is possible to generate the kind of red-to-blue voter shifts required to regain the majority in the State Assembly and Senate. With continued voter rejection of awful policies by the President, Congress, and state GOP politicians, we just might see a long-overdue shift in state political power next fall. We just might see a new Wisconsin Democratic majority.

Can Wisconsin Democrats Retake the Assembly ?

The political world was shocked by the strong Democratic performance in Tuesday's Wisconsin special elections. Scott Walker is worried, calling the results a “a wake-up call for Republicans in Wisconsin.” Paul Ryan is alarmed, saying "I think we should pay attention to it."

State Republicans are right to be worried. If the elections held during the past year are any indication, Democrats should do quite well in 2018. Combined with normally poor midterm results for the party occupying the White House, next November might well be a Democratic tidal wave.

We must fire Scott Walker this year. But that is not enough. In order to undo all of the anti-worker, anti-choice, anti-environment, anti-education damage inflicted on our state since 2011, we must also regain a majority in the legislature.

One question on the minds of many progressive Wisconsinites is, will we do well enough to regain a majority in the State Assembly? Do we have a any hope of surmounting the grossly gerrymandered districts imposed on Wisconsin by the GOP? How big of a voter swing do we need to take-back our state government? Let's consider this.

Of course, if the US Supreme Court orders Wisconsin to re-draw fair district maps, all bets are off. But we can't count on justice to prevail. We may have to play the crooked cards we were dealt.

Of the 99 Wisconsin Assembly elections of 2016, 28 were in districts that are packed so tightly with Democrats that there was no sacrificial Republican candidate. Most of these districts are in Madison, Racine, and Milwaukee-urban areas that the GOP neither cares about nor politically contests. These 28 seats are pretty safe Democratic territory.

In 2016, a pretty good year for Wisconsin Republicans, seven Democrats won against declared Republican candidates. These seven districts are probably also safe for the Dems in the coming big blue wave of  2018.

That gives the Democrats 35 seats on the way to a 50 seat majority. There were 21 Assembly races in 2016 that were in districts so red that no Democrat challenged. Most of these deep crimson areas will likely remain in Republican hands. Despite the fact that many great Democratic candidates are stepping-up to contest these seats in November, let's be realistic about our chances.

So, in order to pick-up the additional 15 seats on the way to an Assembly majority, let's consider the 43 seats currently in GOP hands, in which Democrats did field a 2016 candidate. These 43 districts were all carefully crafted during the 2011 partisan gerrymander. At least 24 of them yielded a GOP majority in the tight 57%-63% range in 2016. In only four of the contested precision-engineered districts did the Democrats garner more than 43% of the 2016 vote.

A shift of 2% of voters in each these 43 contested districts gains Democrats no additional seats. A shift of 5% of voters in each district gains us only two seats. Even with a seismic 10% shift of voters from red to blue, the Dems only gain 11 seats. Still, no majority.

A 11% shift almost gets us there, with a 14 seat gain. The tipping point comes at a 12% shift of voters. With such a large shift from red to blue, Democrats gain 21 seats, yielding a comfortable majority in the Assembly.

But is that even possible? Could we see a 12% shift of voters from red to blue in these districts, awarding Democrats a new Assembly majority? Tuesday's election told us that it is possible. Let's look at the District 10 State Senate race. The Democratic candidate, Patty Schachtner, convincingly won with 54.5% of the vote. This is a district in which former GOP State Senator Sheila Harsdorf's Democratic opponent gained only 36.8% of the vote in 2016. That is a Democratic shift of 17.7%.

But that wasn't the only place where Wisconsin Democrats outperformed this week. District 58 Assembly candidate, Dennis Degenhardt, garnered 43.4% of the vote in deep-red Washington County. We have no good comparison of Tuesday's results with past Assembly races, since Dennis is the first Democratic candidate there since the 2011 redistricting. Hillary only received 28.4% of the district vote in 2016. So, the Democratic Assembly candidate created a shift of 15% of voters to the Democratic column.

Granted, this week's votes were special elections to fill vacancies. There was only one race on each ballot. The voter turn-out was anemic. For example, the turn-out in SD 10 was a measly 24.9% of the vote total for the same seat in 2016. The campaigns with the greatest enthusiasm outperformed. The challenge for November will be to generate the same sort of red-to-blue shifts in a high-profile election headlined by US Senate and gubernatorial races.

This week's special elections showed that it is possible to generate the 12% red-to-blue voter shifts required to regain the majority in the State Assembly. With continued voter rejection of awful policies by the President, Congress, and state GOP politicians, we just might see a long-overdue shift in state political power next fall. We just might see a Democratic majority in the Assembly.

Walker's War on Madison

I love Madison. For a smaller city, Wisconsin's capital has a lot going for it. The stores, the restaurants, the music, the art, and the people are wonderful. The city has the largest producers-only farmers' market in America. City boosters claim that Madison has more restaurants per capita than any other US city. There is always something interesting going on.

Madison's business climate is also great. Madison and Dane County have the lowest unemployment rate in the state. Dane county is a bright spot in the Wisconsin economy. Since 2011, an estimated sixty percent of state private-sector job growth occurred in the Madison metro area. A 2017 survey found Madison to be #10 of the top technology cities in the United States.

Madison's local government is also very effective. A 2013 study by 24/7 Wall Street found that Madison is the second best-run city in the entire US, topped only by Austin, Texas.

With everything that Madison has going for it, I was shocked by a recent tweet from Scott Walker that knocked the city. In a lame attempt to counter an announced candidacy for governor by Madison Mayor Paul Soglin, Walker wrote, "The last thing we need is more Madison in our lives."

The last thing we need is more Madison in our lives. @Paulsoglin is the latest extreme liberal who wants to take our state backward -- just like he did in Madison, where businesses have left and murders have gone up. We want to go forward.

— Scott Walker (@ScottWalker) January 10, 2018

This is not the first time that Walker has used Madison as a boogeyman. In talking about the 2011 protests, Walker said "You've got a world driven by Madison, and a world driven by everybody else out across the majority of the rest of the state of Wisconsin."

Rather than supporting our capital city, Walker has done everything in his power to hurt Madison. The University is a major area employer. Walker has tried to rewrite UW's mission statement. He has caused an exodus of top faculty by weakening tenure. He has axed the University budget. His war on UW-Madison has been unrelenting.

It is odd that Walker hates the second largest city in Wisconsin. (Not that he is especially fond of Milwaukee). I would hope that he could be the leader of the entire state, not just the areas that overwhelmingly vote for him. It is amazing that the Governor tries to divide the state for his cynical political ambitions. It is astounding that Walker tries to build resentment against Madison in order to gain votes from less prosperous areas of the state.

Despite Walker's disdain, the quality-of-life in Madison is good. The city consistently ranks high on various surveys. In 2014, NerdWallet found Madison to be the "greenest city" in America. In 2014, Livability determined Madison to be the 3rd healthiest US city. Madison has been named the most bike-friendly city in the Midwest, and is #7 in the nation. 

At a time that Walker is spending your tax money to lure Millennials into Wisconsin, Forbes ranked Madison the third best city in the country for young people. The 2014 rating was based on job growth, unemployment rates, the number of residents with college degrees, the number of small businesses, the median salary, and the cost of living.

Based on similar criteria, last year, NerdWallet found Madison to be the #1 city in the country for recent college graduates. In 2011, Madison was found to be the most educated US city. An Expedia study ranked Madison as the second coolest city in America.

But Madison isn't just for young people. An AARP study from 2015 found Madison to be America's most livable medium-sized city for people over 50. A 2014 study from Milken Institute found Madison to be the best big city for successful aging.   

In 2015, Madison was ranked by Livability as the best overall place to live. So, by many polls and many criteria, Madison is a desirable place to be. As Wisconsinites, we should be proud of this national recognition for our capital.

Unlike Scott Walker, I would be happy with more "Madison in our lives". I would be fine with lower unemployment, a healthier environment, more bike-paths, and better restaurants. I would be fine with lots of high-paying technology jobs. I would be happy with a growing, vibrant economy and low crime rates. I would be elated if the policies that make Madison a wonderful place to live could be rolled-out to our entire state.

A New Year's Resolution

 

From http://www.woodyguthrie.org/

With the beginning of a new year, most of us are making resolutions. Like the denizens of Sesame Street, we all want to become smarter, stronger, and kinder in 2018. New Year's Resolutions are nothing new. Historians have traced the practice back at least 4,000 years, to the ancient Babylonians

I recently became aware of a list of New Year's Resolutions written by one of my heroes, folksinger Woody Guthrie. This icon in the battle for economic justice and equality wasn't highly-educated. However, he was very smart. The two pages pictured above were written by Guthrie as "New Years Rulin's" on January 1, 1943, while living in New York City:

1. Work more and better                    18. Stay glad 
2. Work by a schedule                       19. Keep hoping machine running  
3. Wash teeth if any                           20. Dream good
4. Shave                                             21. Bank all extra money
5. Take bath                                       22. Save dough 
6. Eat good (fruit, vegetables, milk)   23. Have company but don't waste time 
7. Drink very scant if any                   24. Send Mary and kids money
8. Write a song a day                         25. Play and sing good  
9. Wear clean clothes - look good      26. Dance better
10. Shine shoes                                  27. Help win war - beat fascism  
11. Change socks                               28. Love mama  
12. Change bed clothes often             29. Love papa  
13. Read lots good books                   30. Love Pete  
14. Listen to radio a lot                       31. Love everybody
15. Learn people better                       32. Make up your mind                                    
16. Keep rancho clean                        33. Wake up and fight 
17. Don't get lonesome                      
 
Many of Guthrie's folksy resolutions concern person hygiene (such as take bath, shave, change socks, and wash teeth-if any). Some are aimed at improving his personal relationships (love mama & papa, learn people better). Others try to improve his finances (save dough, bank all extra money) or his psyche (read lots good books, dream good, keep hoping machine running). All of us could stand some improvement in these areas.

But Woody leaves the most important resolution for last-"Wake-up and fight!". Woody certainly followed his own advice. His lifetime was spent fighting for workers, the downtrodden, and the oppressed. This should also be the most important resolution for all progressives in 2018. We must "wake-up and fight". We have huge battles facing us at the local, state, and national levels.

In Wisconsin, we must restore balance to our Supreme Court. We must take back the Governor and Attorney-General offices. Like our Virginian brothers and sisters, we need to contest every legislative election in an attempt to regain progressive majorities in Madison.

If we intend to make Wisconsin a place to be proud of again, we need to help elect people who will make drastic changes in how our state is run. We need common sense gun laws and common sense environmental protections. We need policies that increase workers' salaries instead of cutting them. We need to improve public schools and reject school privatization. We need to defend reproductive rights.

On the national level, we must fight each and every regressive policy coming from the tantrum-prone toddler who occupies the Oval Office. We must return to net neutrality. We must reject a return to harsh marijuana law enforcement. We must push for a sane foreign policy. We must rejoin with the rest of the world to fight global heating.

We must continue to resist the efforts of Congress to steal healthcare from Americans. We must enact DACA into law. We must defend Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. We must stand-up against attacks on unions, the environment, and women.

We can only be successful at the national level if we re-take the House and the Senate. For our part, we have to defend Tammy Baldwin's Senate seat and make progressive gains in Wisconsin's House delegation.

If he was still alive, Woody Guthrie would be with us in our 2018 struggle. After all, he wrote a song in the early 1950's, protesting the discriminatory renting policies of Fred Trump, the Orange Dotard's father. Woody would certainly be leading the resistance against the administration of Fred's racist son.

Like Woody Guthrie, we must keep our "hoping machine" running. 2018 needs a strong effort from each and every one of us. We must all make a resolution to be active in campaigns, donate what we can, march, and call our Congresspeople in 2018. We must all "Wake-up and fight !".

With continued hard work and luck, we will win. If we all resolve to put-in our best efforts in 2018, we will prevail. We will take back our state and our country. As the lyrics to one of Woody's best songs promise, "There's a better world that's a-coming !"