Friday, January 26, 2018

Can Wisconsin Democrats Retake the State Senate?




We must fire Scott Walker this year. But that is not enough. In order to undo all of the anti-worker, anti-choice, anti-environment, anti-education damage inflicted on our state since 2011, we must also regain a majority in the legislature. 
 
Last week, we looked at the possibility of Democrats regaining the majority in the State Assembly. It will be very difficult for Dems to overcome the precision engineering of districts that give Republicans a huge electoral advantage. A flip of almost 12% of voters from red to blue in current GOP-held districts will be required to retake the Assembly. 


However, with flips of 17.7% and 15% in last week's special State Senate and Assembly elections, such a large Democratic turnabout is within reason in an anticipated November blue wave.

This week, we look at the Wisconsin State Senate. State Senators are elected for 4 year terms. Half of the seats in that body are decided by voters this year. With 33 seats in the Senate, only 17 are to be selected in November. These are the odd-numbered districts. The districts on the ballot this year were last decided in 2014.

The current State Senate consists of 18 Republicans, 14 Democrats, and one (formerly Republican) open seat. Democrats would need to hold all current seats and flip three additional seats from red to blue in order to reach a 17-16 majority. This is easier said than done.


Of course, if the US Supreme Court orders Wisconsin to re-draw fair district maps, all bets are off. But we can't count on justice to prevail. We may have to play the crooked cards we were dealt.

Of the 17 seats up this year, six are currently in Democratic hands. In an anticipated blue wave these should probably remain Democratic seats. These are Districts 3, 7, 15, 25, 27, and 31. The districts that are currently in GOP hands are 5, 9, 11, 13, 17, 19, 21, 23, 29, and 33. Let's look at at the recent electoral history of those 10 seats, as well as the open, historically Republican District 1.

District                 Current GOP Senator          % D in 2014 Election
1                            (open, formerly Lassee)              38.4 

5                                      Vukmir                   No Dem candidate
9                                      Lemahieu                          39.9
11                                    Nass                                  36.6
13                                    Fitzgerald                          37.3
17                                    Marklein                            44.9
19                                    Roth                                  42.8
21                                    Wanggaard                       38.4
23                                    Moulton                            38.8
29                                    Petrowski                          34.3
33                                    Kapanga                           26.1

None of these races will be easy for Democrats. Of the ten GOP State Senate districts in which Democrats fielded a candidate, only in Districts 17 and 19 did they get more than 40% of the 2014 vote. 


But 2014 was an especially good year for the GOP. It was Obama's second midterm election. Nationally, Republicans gained 3 governor seats, nine Senate seats, and twelve House seats. The State Senate numbers above are a likely GOP high-water mark. 

A 10.1% red-to-blue flip of voters is needed in 2018 for the Democrats to retake the State Senate. This is a slightly lower bar than the 12% voter flip needed to retake the Assembly.

However, in only one of these eleven races (District 5) has a Democrat already filed papers with the Wisconsin Elections Commission. There is certainly time for more Democratic candidates to register, as the paperwork deadline is June 1 to be on the primary ballot. Still, 28 people- including 21 Democrats- have already registered to run for Governor. It is a little disappointing that more A-list Democrats have not already stepped forward to contest these State Senate districts.


Last week's special elections showed that it is possible to generate the kind of red-to-blue voter shifts required to regain the majority in the State Assembly and Senate. With continued voter rejection of awful policies by the President, Congress, and state GOP politicians, we just might see a long-overdue shift in state political power next fall. We just might see a new Wisconsin Democratic majority.



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