A Tsunami Is Coming !

At last weekend's Democratic State Convention, you couldn't walk ten feet without hearing somebody talking excitedly about 2018. Party activists clearly sense a Democratic tidal wave in the mid-term elections.

The party opposing the President traditionally makes gains in the midterm. And 2018 will likely be no exception. Since 1862, the President's party has gained seats in both houses of Congress in only two midterm elections-those of 1934 and 2002. 

The 2010 election, Obama's first mid-term, was an awful year for the Democrats. According to the President, "We were shellacked !" We lost the US House of Representatives, going from a 255-178 majority to a 193-242 minority. We lost six Senate seats. We went from a three-governor advantage to a nine-governor disadvantage.

Wisconsin certainly did not escape the 2010 devastation. Assembly Democrats went from a 50-45 majority to a 38-60 minority. State Senate Democrats went from an 18-15 majority to a 14-19 minority. An Ayn Rand disciple beat progressive 3-term Senator  Russ Feingold. Even worse, we turned the governorship over to Scott Walker, creating the giant shit hole we still inhabit today.

So we know a political tsumami is possible, in which the party in power is routed nationally and statewide. It happened for Republicans in 2010. It can certainly happen for Democrats in 2018. Let's look at some data to see if we are being realistic, or merely hopeful.

Congressional Republicans are not making themselves any friends. Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and their unshackled gang of maniacs are running amok. They are trying to take healthcare away from 24 million Americans. They are gutting important environmental protections. They are dismantling the social safety net, education funding, and scientific research. It is no wonder that many Congressional Republicans are afraid to hold town hall meetings. For all of their efforts, Congressional GOP popularity is dropping fast.

An average of six generic Congressional polls taken between April and June show the Democrats ahead by 6.5%. A May Quinnipiac poll gives Democrats a huge 16% edge. For comparison, before the Democratic bloodbath of 2010, Republicans held just a 5% lead in the generic Gallup poll.

The midterm elections are a referendum on the President. Having Trump as their leader does the GOP no favors. Ham-handed bungling of international affairs, a rudderless domestic policy, and a scandal-a-day administration add up to a failed Presidency. Trump's approval rating is at record lows. An average of ten recent polls gives him a 39% approval, and it's falling fast. Quinnipiac has him at 34%. Trump will have very short 2018 coattails, to match his tiny hands.

Faced with the Trump disaster and a feckless GOP Congress, more Americans are self-identifying as Democrats. In a June Gallup poll, 45% of Americans identify as Democrats (or lean Democratic), while only 38% identify as Republican (or lean Republican). This 7% gap has jumped from only 3% in November.

On top of poor approval for GOP politicians, there is an unprecedented energy and excitement from the progressive base. The election of President Trump has taught us our lesson. We will certainly not sit out 2018. One only had to attend the Madison Women's March, or the Milwaukee March for Science, or the State Democratic Convention to see that people are fired-up and ready to go. One only has to go to any of Sensenbrenner's town halls, or local meetings of activists in the blood-red W.O.W. counties to see the renewed high-voltage grass-roots energy.

Sensing blood in the water, many Dems are stepping forward to run in 2018. Sensenbrenner already has a declared opponent- Shawn Rundblade. Glen Grothman has two-  Scott Olmer and Dan Kohl. Although no serious candidates for Governor have formally announced, the election is still seventeen months away. Many great experienced progressive candidates are floating their names to run against the highly-vulnerable Walker.

Even in scarlet red-area Assembly races, serious candidates are stepping forward. Last year, District 24 Republican Dan Knodl ran unopposed (Germantown, Brown Deer, River Hills, N. Glendale). This year, two great candidates have already announced a challenge to Knodl, the Tea Partier who jammed Right-to-Freeload through the Assembly.

The President's party has traditionally lost seats during midterm elections. Add in low GOP party affiliation, a big Democratic advantage in generic Congressional polling, and Trump's abysmal approval numbers and we have the makings of a good 2018 for progressives. Throw in a charged-up army of grass-roots activists and we just might have ourselves a Democratic tsunami !