The Wisconsin right-wing media machine got their panties in a twist last week. The focus of their conniption is proposed legislation to guarantee rights to all Wisconsin citizens. The plan would also institute safeguards to check government corruption. It would guarantee a good public school education to every Wisconsin child. It would promote clean air and water for us all.
Spear-headed by Rep. Chris Taylor (D-Madison), the proposed Joint Resolution would amend the state Constitution in a number of ways. It would reverse some of the worst GOP power-grabs of the last seven years. The boys at MacIver so-called "Institute" are freaking-out. Right White Wisconsin did a hysterical hatchet-job on the proposal. Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin called the document an "Outrageous Power Grab by Leftwing Special Interests".
What has the right's propaganda machine so agitated? You can read the proposal for yourself here. The document is early in the legislative process, so it is likely subject to change. However, here are some of the main points:
Cleaner Government- Once a paragon of clean government, Wisconsin laws have been systematically dismantled to entrench the GOP in power. Taylor's proposal codifies and strengthens state ethics laws so that once again, we will have a state government we can to be proud of. This includes:
- Re-establishing a non-partisan government ethics and elections Board (GAB).
- Providing for a non-partisan process to draw legislative district boundaries.
- Strengthening open meetings laws and the right to access public records.
- Establishing rational recusal guidelines for judges.
Rights of Citizens- Since 2011, many of the rights of Wisconsin citizens have come under attack by the Republican majority. The proposed legislation pushes back on this assault by codifying into state law basic rights such as:
- The right to access quality, affordable health care services.
- The right to privacy, including the right to marry and exercise reproductive rights.
- The right of every person to a just and fair wage.
- The right to vote without obstruction.
- The right all public and private employees to organize and collectively bargain.
Education- The plan strengthens the independence of the State Superintendent and states that no taxpayer monies will go to fund religious instruction. Statewide standards will be set for school staffing and funding.
Environment- The plan establishes an independent DNR organization and states that "Every person shall have the right to a clean, healthy environment, including the right to access clean, safe drinking water and the right to breathe clean air."
As long as Republicans hold the governorship and legislative majorities, there is little chance that this proposal will see the light of day. After all, the reforms outlined would undo much of the GOP-induced damage imposed on our state over the past seven years.
It is no wonder that Republican propaganda arms like White Wisconsin and MacIver are so vehemently opposed. AFP-Wisconsin is so threatened that it promised to "mobilize its base to ...ensure this resolution is soundly defeated". Personal rights, cleaner government, good schools, and a healthy environment are evidently anathema to conservatives.
However, there is a good chance that progressives will regain state power during November's elections. Rep. Taylor's proposal is a well-reasoned and positive road-map for how Democrats can re-make Wisconsin. With luck and hard work, we can make this vision a reality.
The political world was shocked by the strong Democratic performance in Tuesday's Wisconsin special elections. Scott Walker is worried, calling the results a “a wake-up call for Republicans in Wisconsin.” Paul Ryan is alarmed, saying "I think we should pay attention to it."
State Republicans are right to be worried. If the elections held during the past year are any indication, Democrats should do quite well in 2018. Combined with normally poor midterm results for the party occupying the White House, next November might well be a Democratic tidal wave.
We must fire Scott Walker this year. But that is not enough. In order to undo all of the anti-worker, anti-choice, anti-environment, anti-education damage inflicted on our state since 2011, we must also regain a majority in the legislature.
One question on the minds of many progressive Wisconsinites is, will we do well enough to regain a majority in the State Assembly? Do we have a any hope of surmounting the grossly gerrymandered districts imposed on Wisconsin by the GOP? How big of a voter swing do we need to take-back our state government? Let's consider this.
Of course, if the US Supreme Court orders Wisconsin to re-draw fair district maps, all bets are off. But we can't count on justice to prevail. We may have to play the crooked cards we were dealt.
Of the 99 Wisconsin Assembly elections of 2016, 28 were in districts that are packed so tightly with Democrats that there was no sacrificial Republican candidate. Most of these districts are in Madison, Racine, and Milwaukee-urban areas that the GOP neither cares about nor politically contests. These 28 seats are pretty safe Democratic territory.
In 2016, a pretty good year for Wisconsin Republicans, seven Democrats won against declared Republican candidates. These seven districts are probably also safe for the Dems in the coming big blue wave of 2018.
That gives the Democrats 35 seats on the way to a 50 seat majority. There were 21 Assembly races in 2016 that were in districts so red that no Democrat challenged. Most of these deep crimson areas will likely remain in Republican hands. Despite the fact that many great Democratic candidates are stepping-up to contest these seats in November, let's be realistic about our chances.
So, in order to pick-up the additional 15 seats on the way to an Assembly majority, let's consider the 43 seats currently in GOP hands, in which Democrats did field a 2016 candidate. These 43 districts were all carefully crafted during the 2011 partisan gerrymander. At least 24 of them yielded a GOP majority in the tight 57%-63% range in 2016. In only four of the contested precision-engineered districts did the Democrats garner more than 43% of the 2016 vote.
A shift of 2% of voters in each these 43 contested districts gains Democrats no additional seats. A shift of 5% of voters in each district gains us only two seats. Even with a seismic 10% shift of voters from red to blue, the Dems only gain 11 seats. Still, no majority.
A 11% shift almost gets us there, with a 14 seat gain. The tipping point comes at a 12% shift of voters. With such a large shift from red to blue, Democrats gain 21 seats, yielding a comfortable majority in the Assembly.
But is that even possible? Could we see a 12% shift of voters from red to blue in these districts, awarding Democrats a new Assembly majority? Tuesday's election told us that it is possible. Let's look at the District 10 State Senate race. The Democratic candidate, Patty Schachtner, convincingly won with 54.5% of the vote. This is a district in which former GOP State Senator Sheila Harsdorf's Democratic opponent gained only 36.8% of the vote in 2016. That is a Democratic shift of 17.7%.
But that wasn't the only place where Wisconsin Democrats outperformed this week. District 58 Assembly candidate, Dennis Degenhardt, garnered 43.4% of the vote in deep-red Washington County. We have no good comparison of Tuesday's results with past Assembly races, since Dennis is the first Democratic candidate there since the 2011 redistricting. Hillary only received 28.4% of the district vote in 2016. So, the Democratic Assembly candidate created a shift of 15% of voters to the Democratic column.
Granted, this week's votes were special elections to fill vacancies. There was only one race on each ballot. The voter turn-out was anemic. For example, the turn-out in SD 10 was a measly 24.9% of the vote total for the same seat in 2016. The campaigns with the greatest enthusiasm outperformed. The challenge for November will be to generate the same sort of red-to-blue shifts in a high-profile election headlined by US Senate and gubernatorial races.
This week's special elections showed that it is possible to generate the 12% red-to-blue voter shifts required to regain the majority in the State Assembly. With continued voter rejection of awful policies by the President, Congress, and state GOP politicians, we just might see a long-overdue shift in state political power next fall. We just might see a Democratic majority in the Assembly.
