W.O.W. Election Results

On Tuesday, Wisconsin held another election for State Supreme Court. Although non-partisan in name, the election was anything but. Michael Screnock was the hand-picked candidate of Scott Walker, WMC, the NRA, the Bradley Foundation, and the state GOP. He was a point man for defending some of the state GOP's worst abuses of power, including Act 10 and the horrific gerrymandering of legislative districts. He was endorsed by David Prosser, Leah Vukmir, and Wisconsin Right to Life.

Rebecca Dallet was by far the more progressive candidate. For example, she appeared at the 2017 Democratic State Convention, 2017 Fighting BobFest, and last month's Milwaukee March for Our Lives. She was endorsed by Tammy Baldwin, Planned Parenthood, the AFL-CIO, and Shepherd Express.

By any measure, this Supreme Court election was a conservative vs progressive contest. Rebecca Dallet won by a surprising statewide margin of 55.8 to 44.2%. This caused Walker and the state GOP much gnashing of teeth and browning of shorts. These results bode well for future election success for progressive candidates in our state.

How did the election turn-out in the W.O.W. counties? Certainly, the tri-county Ring of Fire lived-up to its reputation as a Republican bastion. Out of all 72 Wisconsin counties, Washington County provided Screnock's largest margin (69.3% of votes went for Screnock). Waukesha was his second-best county (64.5% for Screnock). Ozaukee was his sixth best county (58.7%). Altogether, Screnock harvested 64.5% of the W.O.W. vote.

The three W.O.W. counties constituted 14.2% of the total statewide electorate for the two SC candidates. Because W.O.W. turn-out is generally higher than the state as a whole, this is several percent higher than the 12.4% portion of total statewide registered voters that we represent.

We gave Screnock 20.7 % of his statewide total vote (90,914 of 440,235). On the positive side, we contributed 9.0% of Dallet's statewide vote (50,016 of 555,196). W.O.W. counties are crucially important for Republicans, but Democrats cannot afford to neglect us.

Voter turn-out for Spring elections is generally anemic compared to higher profile partisan elections. What about this year? Statewide, fully 32.5% of registered voters voted in the SC election (995,431 of 3,058,349). This compares with a 36.2% turn-out in Washington Co., 36.5% in Waukesha Co., and a whopping 41.5% in Ozaukee Co.

Both the statewide and W.O.W.-county turn-out this year were high compared to previous Spring Supreme Court races. In 2017, Justice Ziegler was reelected without a challenger. The 2016 election was anomalous because it was held concurrently with the hotly-contested presidential primaries.

In the April 2015 election (Ann Walsh Bradley v. James Daley), W.O.W. turn-out was only 24.5% of pre-registered voters (compared to 23.4% statewide). In the April 2013 SC election (Roggensack/Fallone), W.O.W. turn-out was 28.3% (compared to 23.2% statewide). There was considerably higher interest in this year's Supreme Court election than similar past ones.

But even the turn-out for this year's Court race was low compared to Presidential elections. W.O.W. voter turn-out in the Clinton/Trump election of 2016 was 86.6%.

Did this election give us any indication of a blue wave in W.O.W.-land? The right-winger, Screnock, received 64.5% of W.O.W. vote this year. This compares to 65.2% for the conservative candidate in 2015. Trump garnered 61% of the Presidential vote in the tri-county region. So, there is no clear evidence of a blue shift in the ring of fire.

So what are the take-aways? Washington and Waukesha Counties retain their shameful titles as the reddest and second reddest counties in the state. As shown by statewide turn-out, this Supreme Court election generated much more voter interest than other recent ones. W.O.W. counties still outperform the rest of Wisconsin with respect to voter turn-out and so have a disproportionate influence on state elections. This election gave no indication of a massive shift from red-to-blue in the Milwaukee ring-suburbs. Any positive political shift in this region will require patience, hard work, and investment of resources by progressive organizations and activists.