A Tale of Two Countries

The GOP Congress is hell-bent on repealing the Affordable Care Act because of Obama something, something.... The Senate and House schemes to replace the ACA consist of more tax-cuts for the wealthy, drastic cuts to Medicaid, much higher costs for seniors, and not a single thing to improve the health of Americans.

The main ACA complaint by Republican politicians is that for a handful of counties in backwoods America, there are few insurance options on the exchanges. The fact that Cletus and Maud in Dog-Crap, Missouri cannot buy insurance on their county exchange is somehow being used as an excuse to take insurance away from 23 million people. Rather than implement a simple fix, such as a public option for some local exchanges, GOP politicians see this as a golden opportunity to steal desperately-needed care from the poor.

Ironically, many of the same people who elected Trump, and many of the GOP Congress' own constituents, are the Americans who will be hurt the worst by the travesty of Trumpcare. This week, I would like to examine just how bad the healthcare already is in Republican states. Yet, the politicians who claim to represent these people want to make that care so much worse.

Let's divide the country into two groups-the thirty states whose electoral votes went to Trump, and the twenty states (plus DC) whose electoral votes went to Hillary. We will compare the current status of insurance, health, and outcomes of the two groups to see which is in most dire need of government help. The data I reference below was compiled by the well-respected Kaiser Family Foundation and the US Centers for Disease Control.

First of all, the citizens of Trump states currently have substantially less access to healthcare than the rest of America. No big surprise there. The 30 Trump states have an average of 9.8% of their residents uninsured. In drastic contrast, the 20 states that voted for Hillary have only 6.8% uninsured residents. Much of this inexcusable insurance gap is due to some stubborn Republican governors still denying Medicaid expansion to their people.

Let's look at health-affecting lifestyle differences between the Trump and Hillary groups. Clearly, being fat is detrimental to your health. The average Trump state has a 31.3 % obesity rate, while the average Hillary state comes in at a relatively skinny 26.4% obesity rate. Of the 16 states with the highest obesity rates, each and every one went for Trump.

Other than Mike Pence, everyone understands that smoking adversely affects your health. The overall US adult smoking rate is 16.8%. The 30 states that voted for Trump have a much higher average rate of smoking (19.3%) compared to the 20 states that voted for Hillary (15.6%). But that doesn't tell the whole story. Of the 14 highest smoking states, each and every one went for Trump

So lifestyle factors affecting health are much worse in Trump states. Trump states have more obese people and more smokers. This is compounded by the fact that too many people are without insurance coverage in those same states.

Let's look at numbers that reflect the lack of access to medical help. The suicide rate is some indication of lack of access to psychiatric care. America has an overall suicide rate of 13.3 per 100,000 people. The average Trump state has a suicide rate of 16.6, while the average Hillary state's suicide rate is a substantially lower 13.1.

Teen pregnancies are another tragedy that could, in many cases, be avoided with access to proper healthcare. Contraceptives are cheap, and highly effective. The average Trump state had a teen birth rate of 26.3 (per 1000 females 15-19), while the average Hillary state had a 33% lower rate, at 17.6 per 1000. Nine of the top ten highest teen birth states voted for Trump.

One of the best indicators of a population's health is how people actually feel. A self-evaluation questionnaire found that in Trump states, 18% of people said their health was poor or only fair. This contrasts with Hillary states, where a much lower 15% described their health as poor or fair. 

Another good indicator of a population's health is the expected lifespan of a newborn. Again, Trump states are relatively unhealthy, with an average expected lifespan of 77.9 years. Residents of Hillary states can expect to live 79.7 years-almost two years longer than people in Trump states.

The average Trump-voting state has higher obesity, smoking, teen-pregnancies, and suicide rates than US averages. The unfortunate folks in these states have poorer health outcomes and shorter lifespans. The politicians who claim to represent these people are miserably failing them. These states need better and cheaper access to care, not less. They do not need the snake-oil prescription that GOP politicians are selling them. They do not need the disaster that is Trumpcare. 

GOP Hacks Wreck Healthcare Exchanges, Blame Democrats

 

I am retired, sixty-three years old, and too young for Medicare. My wife and I buy our insurance coverage through the federal Healthcare exchange. Wednesday, I received an e-mail from our carrier, Anthem Blue Cross-Blue Shield. It was titled: Anthem will Discontinue many ACA Health Plans in 2018. 

In describing their decision to exit most of the exchange markets in Wisconsin, Anthem's note stated, "Unfortunately, uncertainty in the Wisconsin health insurance market does not provide the clarity and confidence we need to offer affordable coverage to our members in 2018." (underline mine)

In another statement, the company expanded on their reasoning, saying that selling into the exchanges has "become increasingly difficult due to a shrinking and deteriorating individual market, as well as continual changes and uncertainty in federal operations, rules, and guidance."

GOP politicians wasted no time. The same hacks responsible for the "continual changes and uncertainty in federal operations, rules, and guidance" started pointing their fingers elsewhere. They celebrated our inconvenience and gleefully blamed the law that has brought America's uninsured rate to historic lows.

Granny-starver Paul Ryan predictably said, "Because of Obamacare, many Wisconsinites will now have to scramble to find new plans and new doctors. " Ryan further stated, “This law has failed our state. Obamacare is clearly collapsing, and we have to step in before more families get hurt.”

Urine-fixated Scott Walker chimed in about Anthem's move from our state's exchange: "Obamacare is collapsing. Growing uncertainty in the health insurance market was created by Obamacare’s costly regulations and it is causing higher premiums and a lack of options. "

Jim (If Obama is for it, I'm against it !) Sensenbrenner posted on Facebook, "Today’s announcement that Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield will be dropping out of the Wisconsin health insurance market is devastating to thousands of families in our state. It’s another unfortunate example of the ongoing failures of the disastrous Obamacare law..."

All is not dire. We are not in the mythical ACA death spiral that the GOP has been lying about for seven years. We will still have plenty of choices of insurance carriers in Wisconsin. In fact, of 3,144 total US counties, only 44 are in any risk of having no exchange insurer next year.

However, changing health insurance is a hassle. I will have to deal with a new carrier. I may have to change doctors. So will an estimated 14,000 other Wisconsin residents. But it is not the fault of the Affordable Care Act. It is not the fault of Democrats. I don't even blame Anthem for leaving the exchange.

We are not stupid. The ACA markets were stable until the Republicans gained complete control in Washington. They were stable until Trump started threatening to renege on the government's obligation to pay cost-sharing subsidies. They were stable until Trump's executive order to stop enforcing the individual mandate. They were stable until all of the uncertainty of Congress's mean-spirited attempt to rip the American healthcare system to shreds.

No, Anthem Blue Cross/Blue Shield leaving Wisconsin is not the fault of the Affordable Care Act. As the insurer clearly stated, it is the fault of deep uncertainties at the federal level. 

It is the fault of Congressmen like Jim Sensenbrenner and Paul Ryan, who have worked tirelessly to take heathcare away from their constituents. It is the fault of Sen. Ron Johnson, who said that the ACA is the greatest assault on freedom in his lifetime. It is the fault of our Governor, who has done everything possible to sabotage our healthcare. It is the fault of an incompetent President, who continues to cripple the law through his Executive Orders.

Republicans are in complete control of both our state and federal governments. GOP politicians have weakened the healthcare marketplace by their own purposeful actions. They created this mess. In an act of unmitigated gall,they are blaming the Democrats, Obama, and the ACA. Sorry. This is on them. 

 

My IQ Is One of the Highest

Trump is unlike any president in US history. He is a walking casebook of mental issues. Psychologists have diagnosed him as a classic example of narcissistic personality disorder. Some have called him a sociopath. Others have suggested that, based on his erratic behavior and gibberish statements, Trump could have Alzheimer's. 

Today, I would like to explore one aspect of our President's disturbing, multi-troubled psyche. He has a dangerously inflated self-image The man believes that he is highly intelligent, but is not. There is a name for that form of self-delusion. It is called the Dunning–Kruger effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a common human bias in which people who are unskilled in a field vastly over-rate their abilities in that field. They don't know how little they don't know. In Trump's case, he believes that he is much smarter than he actually is. He believes that his mental abilities make him superior to the rest of us. He is ignorant and is ignorant of his ignorance.

Manifestations of Trump's strong Dunning-Kruger bias abound. Here are just a few times that Trump publicly boasted about his imaginary superhuman mental abilities:

In defending his lie that thousands of New Jersey Muslims celebrated the 9/11 tragedy, Trump said, "I have the world’s greatest memory. It’s one thing everyone agrees on." Trump later did not remember saying this.

In defending the fact that he attends very few of his daily intelligence briefings, Trump said,"I get it when I need it. I'm, like, a smart person."

In May 2013, Trump tweeted, "Sorry losers and haters, but my I.Q. is one of the highest -and you all know it! Please don't feel so stupid or insecure, it's not your fault."

At a campaign rally, Trump famously uttered, "I went to an Ivy League school. I’m very highly educated. I know words, I have the best words."

When asked what experts he was conferring with on foreign policy, Trump replied, “I’m speaking with myself, number one, because I have a very good brain and I’ve said a lot of things."

For years, Trump has told anyone who will listen that he graduated from Wharton School of Business with honors. He led people to believe that he graduated with an MBA at the top of his class from one of the nation's top business schools. In reality, he went there two years and, with credits transferred from another school, got an undergrad degree. He was nowhere close to graduating with honors.

Trump somehow never seems to exhibit the "great brain" that he constantly professes to have. He will not read long memos. Aides claim that briefing papers on every subject, no matter how complex, must be condensed to a single page and have no more than nine bullet points. At the recent NATO summit, our allies were requested to keep speeches to four minutes, due to Trump's short attention span.

Presidents Clinton and Obama are voracious readers. Jimmy Carter has written more that 30 books. Even W frequently enjoys a good book. But not Trump. In an interview, Megyn Kelly recently asked what book he last read. Trump's reply was “I read passages, I read areas, chapters, I don’t have the time."

In a Fox interview, Tucker Carlson asked him the same soft-ball question about what he reads. Trump's rambling answer was, "Well, you know, I love to read. Actually, I’m looking at a book, I’m reading a book, I’m trying to get started. Every time I do about a half a page, I get a phone call that there’s some emergency, this or that. But we’re going to see the home of Andrew Jackson today in Tennessee and I’m reading a book on Andrew Jackson. I love to read. I don’t get to read very much, Tucker, because I’m working very hard on lots of different things..."

The actual author of The Art of the Deal, Tony Schwartz, said last year, “I seriously doubt that Trump has ever read a book straight through in his adult life.” During the eighteen months that he spent with Trump, Schwartz said that he never saw a book on Trump’s desk, in his office, or in his apartment.

So the leader of our country is an ignoramus who doesn't read. He doesn't take time to learn any subject at more than a superficial level. He has already demonstrated that he knows nothing about NATO, or our allies, or global warming, or healthcare. He knows nothing about hundreds of other subjects on which he makes critical decisions. More than once, Trump's ignorance has made us an international embarrassment.

Trump lacks the intellectual curiosity and smarts to study the important policy issues. But that is not all. Thanks to his severe Dunning-Kruger bias, he is not even interested in getting the input of our country's top experts. He doesn't need the views of the State Department. He knows more than top government scientists. He thinks the vast intelligence apparatus is wrong. He knows more about defeating ISIS than the generals. After all, he is, like, a smart person. 

A Tsunami Is Coming !

At last weekend's Democratic State Convention, you couldn't walk ten feet without hearing somebody talking excitedly about 2018. Party activists clearly sense a Democratic tidal wave in the mid-term elections.

The party opposing the President traditionally makes gains in the midterm. And 2018 will likely be no exception. Since 1862, the President's party has gained seats in both houses of Congress in only two midterm elections-those of 1934 and 2002. 

The 2010 election, Obama's first mid-term, was an awful year for the Democrats. According to the President, "We were shellacked !" We lost the US House of Representatives, going from a 255-178 majority to a 193-242 minority. We lost six Senate seats. We went from a three-governor advantage to a nine-governor disadvantage.

Wisconsin certainly did not escape the 2010 devastation. Assembly Democrats went from a 50-45 majority to a 38-60 minority. State Senate Democrats went from an 18-15 majority to a 14-19 minority. An Ayn Rand disciple beat progressive 3-term Senator  Russ Feingold. Even worse, we turned the governorship over to Scott Walker, creating the giant shit hole we still inhabit today.

So we know a political tsumami is possible, in which the party in power is routed nationally and statewide. It happened for Republicans in 2010. It can certainly happen for Democrats in 2018. Let's look at some data to see if we are being realistic, or merely hopeful.

Congressional Republicans are not making themselves any friends. Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, and their unshackled gang of maniacs are running amok. They are trying to take healthcare away from 24 million Americans. They are gutting important environmental protections. They are dismantling the social safety net, education funding, and scientific research. It is no wonder that many Congressional Republicans are afraid to hold town hall meetings. For all of their efforts, Congressional GOP popularity is dropping fast.

An average of six generic Congressional polls taken between April and June show the Democrats ahead by 6.5%. A May Quinnipiac poll gives Democrats a huge 16% edge. For comparison, before the Democratic bloodbath of 2010, Republicans held just a 5% lead in the generic Gallup poll.

The midterm elections are a referendum on the President. Having Trump as their leader does the GOP no favors. Ham-handed bungling of international affairs, a rudderless domestic policy, and a scandal-a-day administration add up to a failed Presidency. Trump's approval rating is at record lows. An average of ten recent polls gives him a 39% approval, and it's falling fast. Quinnipiac has him at 34%. Trump will have very short 2018 coattails, to match his tiny hands.

Faced with the Trump disaster and a feckless GOP Congress, more Americans are self-identifying as Democrats. In a June Gallup poll, 45% of Americans identify as Democrats (or lean Democratic), while only 38% identify as Republican (or lean Republican). This 7% gap has jumped from only 3% in November.

On top of poor approval for GOP politicians, there is an unprecedented energy and excitement from the progressive base. The election of President Trump has taught us our lesson. We will certainly not sit out 2018. One only had to attend the Madison Women's March, or the Milwaukee March for Science, or the State Democratic Convention to see that people are fired-up and ready to go. One only has to go to any of Sensenbrenner's town halls, or local meetings of activists in the blood-red W.O.W. counties to see the renewed high-voltage grass-roots energy.

Sensing blood in the water, many Dems are stepping forward to run in 2018. Sensenbrenner already has a declared opponent- Shawn Rundblade. Glen Grothman has two-  Scott Olmer and Dan Kohl. Although no serious candidates for Governor have formally announced, the election is still seventeen months away. Many great experienced progressive candidates are floating their names to run against the highly-vulnerable Walker.

Even in scarlet red-area Assembly races, serious candidates are stepping forward. Last year, District 24 Republican Dan Knodl ran unopposed (Germantown, Brown Deer, River Hills, N. Glendale). This year, two great candidates have already announced a challenge to Knodl, the Tea Partier who jammed Right-to-Freeload through the Assembly.

The President's party has traditionally lost seats during midterm elections. Add in low GOP party affiliation, a big Democratic advantage in generic Congressional polling, and Trump's abysmal approval numbers and we have the makings of a good 2018 for progressives. Throw in a charged-up army of grass-roots activists and we just might have ourselves a Democratic tsunami !

Political Name-Calling

The far-right has long been enamored with personal insults. When losing on-line arguments, conservatives frequently retreat to stock juvenile responses like "Libtard, go find your safe space !" or "Well, you're a snowflake !".

So it was no surprise when Donald Trump, master of the second-grade insult, successfully took over the Republican Party. Rattling-off ironically-projective names like "Little Marco", "Low Energy Jeb", "Lyin' Ted", "Crazy Bernie" and "Crooked Hillary", Trump spoke to the party faithful at a level that they could understand.

Trump is by no means the first to introduce name-calling into right-wing politics. There is a tradition of name calling by conservatives. Years of vilification turned the perfectly-good and noble term, "liberal", into a sneering pejorative. Since 1940, many conservatives have refused to use the adjective, "Democratic", insisting on ignorant, nails-on-chalkboard terms like "Democrat Party".

No, name-calling by the right is certainly not new. However, the ascendance of Trump and his alt-Right supporters have taken name-calling to a whole new level. A entirely new dictionary of stupid invectives has entered our political discourse, making it even more difficult to hold a civil debate on policy. Derogatory names like "beta", "cuck", "libtard", "buttercup", "cupcake", and "snowflake" are common on chat sites where the Right congregates.

Use of the term, "snowflake" by the Right is especially ironic. A "snowflake" is someone who is too easily offended, or too fragile. By this definition the Right's leader, Donald Trump, is the most fragile snowflake of them all. He constantly complains about the people who are "mean" to him. At a Coast Guard graduation ceremony, Trump recently whined, "Look at the way I've been treated lately. Especially by the media. No politician in history has been treated worse or more unfairly !"

In an extreme example of projection, conservative darling Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke frequently uses the term "snowflake" in describing progressives. This is the same David Clarke who ordered his deputies detain a man at the Milwaukee Airport for looking at Clarke in a mean way.

One of the silliest of alt-right insults is the term "SJW", short for Social Justice Warrior. The alt-right sneeringly uses this term as an insult. This is absurd. What is wrong with social justice? What is wrong with standing-up for the oppressed, the weak, those who have no voice of their own? What is wrong with insisting that every group in society should have the same rights and freedoms ?

Some of the most admired people who ever lived were social justice warriors, standing-up for the oppressed. Abraham Lincoln was an SJW. Susan B. Anthony was an SJW. Father Damien was an SJW. Martin Luther King was an SJW. Gandhi was an SJW. Mother Theresa was an SJW. Jesus Christ was an SJW.

In the Right's new topsy-turvy reality, people who should be society's heroes, the best among us, are derided as "social justice warriors". Misogynists, racists, xenophobes, and traitors like our President are held-up for admiration. Such a scrambled view of the world is hard to comprehend.

In our deeply divided country, political discourse has become increasingly hostile. Our President has made juvenile name-calling seem normal. An entire slanguage of new insults has entered our debates from the alt-right. If we ever want to return to functional bipartisan government, if we ever want to return to civil discussion, the silly political name-calling has got to stop.