Political Triage

Yesterday's House vote to steal healthcare from millions of Americans made one thing perfectly clear. We must take back the House in 2018. We cannot allow this slithering mass of helminths to spoil all that is good about America. All progressive hands need to be on deck for the next House election cycle.

2018 will give us a golden opportunity to throw the smirking GOP Congress out on their social-Darwinist butts. The President's party has historically lost Congressional seats during mid-term elections, and next year should be no different. The record-breaking unpopularity and incompetence of their fearless leader only makes our job easier.

I would like to boot-out every single Republican who voted for this bill. However, to regain Congress, we need to play it smart. We need to spend our limited efforts and campaign cash where they will do the most good.

Many of us live in Congressional districts where no amount of effort on our parts will change the outcome of our local House race. Gwen Moore and Mark Pocan will easily win Milwaukee and Madison. Jim Sensenbrenner will win his Waukesha and Washington County-based district. But those of us that live in these three districts can greatly affect the outcome of the five other Wisconsin House elections. Our calls and door-knocks and dollars could make all the difference in electing additional Wisconsin Democrats to Congress. They could make all the difference in the taking-back the House.

Several national organizations assist people in overwhelmingly red or blue districts who want to have an impact on next year's Congressional elections. Swing Left is targeting 65 close Congressional races for 2018. The organization matches activists with races where they can meaningfully get involved as volunteers or as donors. Unfortunately, none of Swing Left's targeted seats are in Wisconsin.

Just as groups like Swing Left help to direct money and volunteers to where they will make the most national impact, we could and should do the same within our state. At the risk of angering many, I believe that we should put less effort into those races that we have no chance of losing and those that we have no chance of winning. Instead, we should focus on the races that are in the middle. We should focus where we have the best and most reasonable chances of pulling-off a gain. This sort of political triage will give us the most realistic chance of election eve pick-ups for the progressive cause.

Below, I list the eight Wisconsin congressional districts, along with the 3-election average winning margin (for 2012, 2014, and 2016). For comparison, I also include the Cook Partisan Voting Index, an indicator of the relative partisan lean of each district.

District      Incumbent           Margin % (Ave 3 elections)     Cook PVI

    1              Ryan                     25.0 R                                       R+5
    2              Pocan                   36.9 D                                       D+18
    3              Kind                     20.6 D (Ave of 2)                      Even
    4              Moore                   55.9 D                                      D+25
    5             Sensenbrenner     38.0 R                                      R+13
    6             Grothman              20.5 R                                      R+8
    7             Duffy                     18.7 R                                      R+8
    8             Gallagher               22.5 R                                      R+7

It is no big surprise that Pocan and Moore (Districts 2 (Madison) and 4 (Milwaukee)) are safe for the Democrats. This is an instance of the GOP's partisan redistricting jamming as many Democratic voters as possible into just a few districts. These districts shouldn't require large investments of volunteers or campaign money to remain in progressive hands. On the other hand, Dems must play strong defense to hold Kind's 3rd District, a district that Trump won by 4%.

Sensenbrenner's 5th district, with a 38% R margin, is even more lopsidedly Republican than Madison is Democratic. In the bluest of election tidal waves, we stand little chance of flipping the 5th. Democratic volunteer efforts and cash are much better spent going after the weakest Republicans-Duffy, Grothman, and Gallagher. A flip of 11.3% of voters from R to D would turn any of these three districts blue. Such a flip is within reason when we consider the "yes" votes by these three heartless buffoons on the Trumpcare bill, as well as Trump's own deep unpopularity.

As much as I would love to see Lyin' Ryan return to Janesville, such a defeat is much less likely than Democratic pick-ups in Districts 6, 7, or 8. Instead of a big, expensive, and likely futile effort to unseat the smirking Eddie Munster, we should work smart and do all we can to demote him to Minority Leader.