In January, the White House set aggressive goals of 4% annual US economic growth. This growth would supposedly be a result of large federal tax cuts, fewer regulations, and a huge infrastructure plan.
Economists in the new administration appear to be using mind-altering substances. To put this into perspective, the average growth for the 2010-2016 recovery was 2.1% annually. Rather than almost doubling the Obama recovery growth rate, I believe that proposed GOP policies will actually cut current growth. In fact, new GOP rules will likely lead to a new recession.
The economy runs in cycles. Periods of business growth are followed by contraction- as inevitably as night follows day. The average post-WWII recovery has lasted 58 months. At 91 months, the current recovery has lasted considerably longer than most. This recovery may soon collapse simply due to old age. But many proposed Republican policies will certainly hasten the process.
Messing with Healthcare. Healthcare is a huge sector of our economy. In 2015, health expenditures were $ 3.2 trillion, or 17.8% of GDP. Current GOP plans to muck-up Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare will wreak havoc on more than a sixth of US economic activity.
Certainly, fewer people will have insurance. Hospitals will face massive lay-offs and closures. Insurance will cost more to those who can still afford it, sucking money out of other sectors of the economy. As a result of only Obamacare repeal, the Economic Policy Institute estimates that 1.2 million US jobs will be lost.
And Republican schemes to privatize/couponize Medicare and slash Medicaid with inflict even more economic damage. Republican healthcare plans will be dramatic and effective job killers.
Anti-Labor Policies. GOP politicians are doing what they love best- taking money out of the hands of lower-paid workers. Already, the White House has announced that they will not defend (in court) Obama's executive order making as many as 12.5 million workers eligible for overtime pay.
With the GOP lock on Washington, the likelihood of a long-overdue increase in the national minimum wage is slim-to-none.
GOP politicians continue their efforts to lower American wages through their unrelenting war on unions. Corporate-shill Republicans have introduced a union-busting national Right-to-Freeload bill in the House. One-trick-pony, Scott Walker, has discussed a national version of Wisconsin's infamous Act 10 with the White House.
Every one of these actions will lower the take-home pay of those most likely to spend the money. Every one of these actions will efficiently put brakes on the economy by drastically curtailing consumer spending.
Xenophobic policies. The new mass round-ups and deportations of undocumented workers are exacting a serious human toll. But these actions will also have a huge negative impact on US economic growth. A recent study estimated that undocumented workers contribute 3% of private sector GDP and would have added nearly $5 trillion in economic growth over the next ten years.
The Muslim ban is also having unintended economic consequences. Scientific research will suffer because Muslim students and technologists cannot continue their work. Non-Muslim students and scientists will reconsider coming to the US, thanks to our current xenophobic government. We will lose our scientific dominance and the accompanying high-pay, high-tech jobs.
Our $2.1 trillion travel industry is already starting to suffer as people from all over the world are reconsidering their US visits. Travel booking sites report flights to the US down as much as 17% since 45's Muslim-banning executive order. Fully one in nine US jobs depend on the travel industry.
Other Job Killing Policies. In addition to the three major job-killing initiatives, the GOP has many other dandy ideas. House pols are pushing for a benign-sounding "border adjustment tax". These new tariffs would ignite a trade war, gutting US exports and inflating the cost of many needed imported goods. We already tried this idea during the Great Depression. It didn't work so well.
The fast-growing solar industry employs over 260,000 Americans. Wind employs another 88,000. The strange anti-science beliefs of Republican politicians will harm US leadership in renewable energy. A party that deletes all mention of global warming from government websites will have no problem in cutting energy research and in ending tax incentives for wind and solar power.
GOP politicians are trying to re-mold America into their own ideological Fantasyland. Screwing-up the healthcare industry, adopting xenophobia as governmental policy, and a continuing effort to depress workers' wages will all have a hugely negative effect on US economic growth. We are entering a new recession of the Republicans' own making.
I lowered my IQ by 5 points today. A high school classmate and Facebook friend posted some stupid country song called "I Think My Dog is a Democrat". The artist's name escapes me, but he is that doughy white guy who wears a cowboy hat and a flannel shirt, and sings with a southern twang.
The song made the rounds last March, being publicized by alt-right, alt-fact media like Breitbart and Hannity. However, because my personal Venn diagram doesn't overlap with either the world of country music or the propaganda world of the crazy right, I just now became aware of it.
The "singer" starts out braying that he feeds his dog and takes him to the vet. Somehow, because the dog gets a legally-mandated amount of care, that makes his pet a Democrat. The lyrics then work-in some important GOP themes, including that Hillary is a female dog, the Dem-o-crats are taking our guns, there is widespread liberal voter fraud, and of course-Benghazi TM
. He finally brings it on home, bellowing: "Ah thank ma dawg's a spread-the-way-ulth, gubment hay-ulth, flay-bitten De-mo-crat."
Unlike the dog in the insipid country song, I think that my dog, Bella, pictured above, might actually be a Republican.
First of all, Bella is not very smart. She is not even smart for a dog. She runs to the door every time a bell rings on TV. When I take her outside on the coldest of nights, she loses focus on her one job. She stares off into the polar gale as my core temperature steadily drops to the danger point.
Bella has all of the environmental ethics of a Republican. She craps all over the yard with no concern for others. She expects someone else to clean up her mess.
Bella also has the economic ethics of a Republican. When we feed the animals, my dog feels entitled to scarf-down all of the food. She leaves little or nothing for the cat. She got hers, screw Mr. Tickle-Puff.
Bella could be considered a neo-con Republican. She is constantly getting into fights with the neighbor dogs, actually enjoying a state of perpetual warfare.
Republicans live in fear of just about everything: big cities, non-Anglo-Saxons, feminists, terrorists, ebola, etc. So does Bella. She freaks out over plaster yard-statues of deer. If a car alarm goes-off anywhere within the Germantown city limits, she has conniptions. She cowers at the sound of distant thunder.
Bella hates any other animals that appear near her territory. She was here first, by God. No other dog should be allowed to set foot on HER soil!
Bella is not interested in facts. When I try to explain something to her, she just looks at me with the same blank, uncomprehending gaze common to Trump rally crowds.
Yes, if my dog was allowed to vote, I am afraid that she would join the millions of American humans of comparable intellect. She would vote Republican.
It is easy to get distracted by the slow-motion GOP train wreck in Washington. However, we also need to keep our focus on what is happening in Wisconsin. This April, we vote for our State Superintendent of Public Instruction. But first, we have a February 21 state-wide primary to winnow the three-person field to two.
Tony Evers has held the position since 2009. He is one of the few state office holders independent of the Walker/Vos/Fitzgerald crime syndicate. He has been a strong advocate of public schools. I won't go into detail on Evers' long and distinguished service. But I encourage you to read his short editorial in today's Cap Times.
We know what we are getting with Evers. But what about the other two candidates, Lowell Holtz and John Humphries? It is difficult to sort through the edu-speak word salad from these candidates to define their governing philosophies. However, it is clear that both challengers are advocates of school privatization and expanded taxpayer funding of religious schools.
Both candidates would drop Common Core State Standards, because of Obama something, something... Holtz does not say what standards he would replace them with. Probably, each and every district would have to ineptly reinvent the wheel. Humphries would spend years and tons of taxpayer money to develop new, statewide Wisconsin standards- standards that would likely end-up similar to Common Core.
From a look at his campaign website, it apparent that Lowell Holtz is an extreme candidate. He has been endorsed by some of the looniest characters in Madison, including Representatives Andre Jacque, Bob "Gunnin'"Gannon, Tea Party Dan Knodl, and Janel Brandtjen. He is endorsed by former Representative, one-time State Superintendent candidate, and frequent national embarrassment, Don Pridemore.
If you like Betsy DeVos, you would love Holtz. Holtz wasted no time in posting a story on his website celebrating DeVos's confirmation. In describing the least qualified Secretary of Education ever, Holtz said, "Never before has the future of education been placed in the hands of a stronger advocate for personal freedom and school choice..." In a FB post last night, Holtz wrote, "Congratulations to Secretary DeVos on her confirmation by the US Senate today! Her intellect and leadership will serve the expansion and longevity of school choice well in Wisconsin and nationwide." (underline mine)
In an oh-so-clever wink to the extreme base, Holtz calls his website "kidservative.com".
John Humphries is also attempting to garner the conservative vote, although his pitch is a little more subtle. He wants to change the state constitution and weaken the roll of State Superintendent. He would create more bureaucracy through formation of an "Education Accountability Board", whose chair would be named by the governor.
Humphries supports the notorious Darling-Kooyenga plan to gradually privatize Milwaukee schools. He also wants to increase the dollars that taxpayers ship-off to religious and for-profit schools, at the expense of public schools.
According to a September FB entry, Humphries received campaign training by far-right American Majority, a group that organized an "I Stand With Walker" rally in February, 2011. He publicly supports Act 10. He issued a statement supporting the confirmation of spectacularly unqualified Betsy DeVos as Education Secretary, saying the confirmation is a "positive development for the future of America's children."
Tony Evers has shown himself an independent voice that has deflected the worst public school schemes of Scott Walker and his state legislature . He will provide an effective buffer from school privatization efforts by the new Secretary of Education, DeVos. Evers' two opponents will not. I encourage everyone to vote for Tony Evers in both the February 21 primary and the April 4 general election.
By any measure, the GOP cannot claim a strong mandate for the extremist agenda they are trying to foist on America. Trump lost the popular vote by 2.8 million. The only way that the GOP has a majority in the House is by a gerrymandering scheme so abusive that, despite Hillary's commanding popular vote win, she carried only 205 House districts to Trump's 230.
And the Senate composition indicates no strong mandate, either. If one assigns state population to the party of their Senators (and splits the state population for split-party states), Democratic Senators represent a huge 178.3 million people, or 55.3% of Americans. Despite this big majority, the Democratic Caucus only constitutes 48% of the Senate.
In contrast, the 52 Senate Republicans represent only 144.1 million people, or 44.7% of Americans. However, they claim a Senate majority, largely due to GOP strength in many of our least populous states.
OK, so the Republicans represent only a minority of Americans. How are they governing? Are they listening to the people? Does their agenda at least reflect the wishes of the majority?
Few issues divide the two parties more than the Right to Choose. For years, radical Republican men have ignored the people to wage their War on Women. The unpopularity of their stance is illustrated by a January Quinnipiac poll which asked: "If you knew that federal government funding to Planned Parenthood was being used only for non-abortion health issues such as breast cancer screening, would you still favor cutting off funding to Planned Parenthood?" The public opposes a funding cut by an overwhelming 80% to 12% margin.
In the same poll, Americans support the Roe v. Wade decision by 70% to 26%. Republicans can hardly say they have a mandate to legislate governmental control of reproduction.
How about other issues? Most Democratic office holders are against the Citizens United decision which exposed our elections to unlimited, anonymous, and uncontrolled dark money. Republicans usually support Citizens United and frequently block legislative attempts to limit the worst abuses. In a September 2015 Bloomburg poll, Americans think that Citizens United should be overturned by a lopsided 87-17% margin.
How do Americans feel about Medicare and Social Security? Congressional Republicans (led by Paul Ryan) are determined to change Medicare into a scheme in which seniors would receive a premium support (discount coupons) to buy private health insurance. The most recent poll on this idea was conducted by Kaiser in 2014. Paul Ryan's plot is pretty unpopular, supported by only 26% of respondents. In contrast, 66% of the public thinks that we should keep the current Medicare system.
And Social Security is just as popular as Medicare. While the GOP wants to cut benefits and raise the retirement age, Democrats want to defend and strengthen the program. A 2014 Pew Research poll reports that 67% of Americans want no cuts to Social Security. Only 31% feel that some future cuts will be needed.
Climate change denial is almost a requirement for a Republican office holder. Trump's cabinet and Congress are well-stocked with anti-science hacks who do not believe that the earth is warming and actively fight efforts to fix the problem. Yet, according to a 2016 Gallup poll, fully 65% of Americans agree with the science that global warming is caused by human activities.
And Trump's useless and expensive border wall? It is not supported by Americans, either. A September CNN poll found that 58% of Americans oppose building the wall vs 41% who actually want it.
Due to an unfortunate convergence of electoral law vagaries and aggressive gerrymandering, the GOP has found itself with a solid grip on the US government. They achieved this power without the support of a majority of voters. However, Washington GOP politicians are acting as though they have a huge mandate to impose radical change. But on issue after issue, Republicans are out-of-sync with the rest of the country. They are truly a minority party pushing a minority agenda on the rest of us.
