Will W.O.W. Counties Turn Blue?

By any measure, the W.O.W. counties are very Republican. For example, in November's election, Germantown voters will see no Democratic challenger to either State Senator Alberta Darling (R-Mesozoic) or State Representative (and Ozaukee Patriots member) Dan Knodl (R-Bronze Age).

In the 2012 presidential election, the three counties gave Mitt Romney the three largest margins in the state (Washington 70%, Waukesha 67%, and Ozaukee 65%). At a combined 67.8% Romney vote, if W.O.W. was a separate state, only Wyoming (69% Romney) and Utah (73% Romney) would have given the GOP candidate a larger margin of victory.

Despite being deep red, the W.O.W. counties are very important to the hopes of statewide Democratic office holders. With a total population of 616,000, W.O.W. is home to a hefty 10.7% of Wisconsinites. There are more people in these three counties than in Madison-centered Dane (516,000). And W.O.W. residents are very politically engaged. We vote. In the 2012 presidential race, our votes constituted a full 12.3% of state-wide turn-out. And in the 2014 gubernatorial election, our voters were an even greater percentage of the Wisconsin total (13.1%). Statewide Democratic candidates ignore these vote-rich counties at their own peril.

However, I tend to be an optimist. The low percentage of W.O.W. Democratic voters is a real opportunity for large Democratic gains through strong outreach efforts. After all, a swing of just 16.1% of 2012 voters from Republican to Democratic would have made the Milwaukee suburbs a tie. In the stronger Democratic year 2008, it would have only taken a 13.1% swing.

Already, one in three W.O.W. voters select Democrats for President. In sheer numbers, Waukesha County is the third most Democratic County in the state, behind only Dane and Milwaukee. And several demographic trends and GOP policy directions are making it likely that the W.O.W. counties will start moving from deep red through fuchsia to full-on blue.

Older, more conservative people are dying-out. Based on 2012 election results, it is clear that young people vote Democratic. Exit polls below show a strong correlation between age and the way we vote:  

                 Age                % Obama Vote

               18-29                     60

               30-44                     52

               45-64                     47

               over 65                  44

Current polls for the Clinton-Trump race show a similar clear correlation. Trump has twice as much support from those over 65 (49%) as from those 18 to 29 (24%). Assuming one's politics do not change over time, this bodes badly for GOP W.O.W. domination in the future. Cranky old GOP-leaning geezers are dying-off and being replaced with far more more progressive youth.

W.O.W. is becoming more ethnically diverse. The Democratic Party continues to be the party of economic opportunity for all Americans. The Party has become a home for voters belonging to fast-growing ethnic minority groups. For example, President Obama garnered 93% of African-American vote, 71% of Hispanic vote, and 73% of Asian-American vote. With the unapologetic racism spouted from the current GOP nominee, Republicans will continue to drive away minority voters.

Like the rest of the country, W.O.W. counties are gradually becoming more ethnically diverse. Just between 2010 and 2014, census surveys show that the number of people reporting as "white alone, not Hispanic or Latino" dropped from 92.3% in the three counties to 91.2%.

Elimination of Milwaukee's residency requirement. In 2013, MPS eliminated the requirement that district teachers live in Milwaukee. Last week, the State Supreme Court ruled against the city requiring other city employees to live in Milwaukee. This will no doubt result in an influx of Democratic-leaning workers and their spouses moving into the surrounding W.O.W. suburbs. Prior to 2013, about 6% of all Milwaukee households had workers covered by the requirements. Four years after ending their own residency requirements, 28.5% of Cleveland's workers had moved to the burbs.

Increasingly Extreme Republican Policies. Over the last several years, Republicans have embraced increasingly extreme and unpopular positions. Republicans at the national level defend the Citizens United decision and fight common-sense gun regulation. At the state level, GOP politicians are busily taking away voting rights and reproductive rights. They are tireless in their war on public education and the environment. And nothing exemplifies the GOP shift to the nutty right more than the party's 2016 presidential nominee.

People are getting fed-up. Nationally, the GOP has a favorable/unfavorable average of 30%/59% vs 45%/46% for Democrats. In Wisconsin, Scott Walker's job approval is in the toilet at 39%. Many voters are re-examining their party affiliation and leanings. And the Republicans are certainly losing independent support.

Yes, the W.O.W. counties are still very red. However, inexorable demographic shifts and unwise GOP policies will gradually put Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha Counties into play for the Democrats. Even before that distant day, the counties will become less overwhelmingly red. As progressives, we need to do everything possible to help that process along.