Earlier, we discussed the alarming drop-off of Wisconsin voting during
off year (gubernatorial) elections compared to presidential election
years. This drop-off hits Democrats disproportionally hard. While
there is typically a 10% drop-off in Republican voters, Democratic
voters drop by a huge 30-40%.
In our examples, we compared the presidential elections of 2008 (Obama/McCain) and 2012 (Obama/Romney) with the off-year elections of 2010 (Walker/Barrett) and 2014 (Walker/Burke). However, maybe the drop-off isn't as severe as we think. Maybe there are simply many voters who selected both Obama and Walker during the four elections. Maybe there are some schizophrenic (or uninformed) voters who prefer centrist Democrats at the national level and Tea Party Republicans at the state level.
Let's look at voter drop-off in a different set of elections. Each seat in the US House of Representatives is contested every two years. Let's compare drop-off for Wisconsin congressional elections between a presidential year (2012) and an off-year (2014). For these two elections, every Wisconsin congressional district had both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot. Each district except one had at least one common candidate on the ballot for both years.
During the presidential election year of 2012, a total of Wisconsin 2,847,010 voters selected a major party candidate for Congress. The power of grossly partisan gerrymandering was demonstrated by the fact that 43,000 more Democratic votes were tallied than Republican ones (1,445,015 D vs 1,401,995), yet we sent an unrepresentative 3D/5R delegation to Washington that year.
By contrast, in the off-year of 2014, only 2,335,917 Wisconsinites voted for a major party congressional candidate. That is an 18% off-year drop-off. And like the top of the ticket, the off-year drop-off was far greater for Democrats, at 23.7%, than for Republicans, at 12.0%. In 2014, the Republican votes edged-out the Democratic votes by 1,233,336 to 1,102,581.
Once again, the Democratic drop-off was statewide. The drop-off in Rep. Gwen Moore's Milwaukee-centered 4th district was 23.9%, about average for the state. This again debunks the myth of Democratic drop-off being primarily a minority/urban phenomenon.
The worst Democratic Congressional race drop-off was in Republican Reid Ribble's Green Bay-centered 8th district (35.2%), and Paul Ryan's Southeast 1st District (33.4%). The lowest? Our neighboring 6th district, which was an open seat in 2014 after the retirement of Tom Petri-R (10.1%), and Germantown's very own 5th District (Jim Sensenbrenner, 14.6% drop-off). Democrats in Sensenbrenner's district may not be numerous, but they are at least dedicated !
In addition to drop-off, there is a voter phenomenon called drop-down, in which voters cast their ballots for the top of the ticket- the president or gubernatorial race-but do not vote in contests for lower offices.
For example, in 2012, of the 3,023,951 Wisconsin voters casting their ballots for President Obama or Mitt Romney, 5.9% did not vote in the Congressional races. This drop-down was almost exclusively Democratic. A staggering 175,970 Obama voters did not vote for Congressional Democratic candidates (10.9%). Only 5,971 Romney voters did not vote for Republican candidates (0.4%).
How about drop-down in gubernatorial elections? Of the 2,382,619 voters casting ballots for Mary Burke or Scott Walker, 2.0% did not vote in the Congressional races. However, here the much lower drop-down was about evenly split between Democrats (1.8%) and Republicans (2.1%). The lower-participation gubernatorial race seems to bring-out only the most partisan voters, ones that tend to vote down the ballot.
The drop-down between the top of the ticket and Congressional races should be fairly small. After all, the US Representative is a pretty important office and those races tend to be highly publicized. The drop-down in less publicized races should be much larger. For example, in the 2012 Assembly race in the 24th district, of which Germantown is a part, there was a 20.4% drop-down between Obama votes and those for the Democratic candidate, Shan Haqqi. There was no corresponding drop-down from Romney votes for the Republican candidate, Dan Knodl.
Both voter drop-off and drop-down from presidential election totals are a serious problem for Democratic candidates. If we want to return to clean government, to progressive policies, and to a robust state economy, this issue must be alleviated. Democrats need to implement strong GOTV policies in every corner of the state. The party must stress its entire slate of candidates, not just those at the top of the ticket.
In our examples, we compared the presidential elections of 2008 (Obama/McCain) and 2012 (Obama/Romney) with the off-year elections of 2010 (Walker/Barrett) and 2014 (Walker/Burke). However, maybe the drop-off isn't as severe as we think. Maybe there are simply many voters who selected both Obama and Walker during the four elections. Maybe there are some schizophrenic (or uninformed) voters who prefer centrist Democrats at the national level and Tea Party Republicans at the state level.
Let's look at voter drop-off in a different set of elections. Each seat in the US House of Representatives is contested every two years. Let's compare drop-off for Wisconsin congressional elections between a presidential year (2012) and an off-year (2014). For these two elections, every Wisconsin congressional district had both a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot. Each district except one had at least one common candidate on the ballot for both years.
During the presidential election year of 2012, a total of Wisconsin 2,847,010 voters selected a major party candidate for Congress. The power of grossly partisan gerrymandering was demonstrated by the fact that 43,000 more Democratic votes were tallied than Republican ones (1,445,015 D vs 1,401,995), yet we sent an unrepresentative 3D/5R delegation to Washington that year.
By contrast, in the off-year of 2014, only 2,335,917 Wisconsinites voted for a major party congressional candidate. That is an 18% off-year drop-off. And like the top of the ticket, the off-year drop-off was far greater for Democrats, at 23.7%, than for Republicans, at 12.0%. In 2014, the Republican votes edged-out the Democratic votes by 1,233,336 to 1,102,581.
Once again, the Democratic drop-off was statewide. The drop-off in Rep. Gwen Moore's Milwaukee-centered 4th district was 23.9%, about average for the state. This again debunks the myth of Democratic drop-off being primarily a minority/urban phenomenon.
The worst Democratic Congressional race drop-off was in Republican Reid Ribble's Green Bay-centered 8th district (35.2%), and Paul Ryan's Southeast 1st District (33.4%). The lowest? Our neighboring 6th district, which was an open seat in 2014 after the retirement of Tom Petri-R (10.1%), and Germantown's very own 5th District (Jim Sensenbrenner, 14.6% drop-off). Democrats in Sensenbrenner's district may not be numerous, but they are at least dedicated !
In addition to drop-off, there is a voter phenomenon called drop-down, in which voters cast their ballots for the top of the ticket- the president or gubernatorial race-but do not vote in contests for lower offices.
For example, in 2012, of the 3,023,951 Wisconsin voters casting their ballots for President Obama or Mitt Romney, 5.9% did not vote in the Congressional races. This drop-down was almost exclusively Democratic. A staggering 175,970 Obama voters did not vote for Congressional Democratic candidates (10.9%). Only 5,971 Romney voters did not vote for Republican candidates (0.4%).
How about drop-down in gubernatorial elections? Of the 2,382,619 voters casting ballots for Mary Burke or Scott Walker, 2.0% did not vote in the Congressional races. However, here the much lower drop-down was about evenly split between Democrats (1.8%) and Republicans (2.1%). The lower-participation gubernatorial race seems to bring-out only the most partisan voters, ones that tend to vote down the ballot.
The drop-down between the top of the ticket and Congressional races should be fairly small. After all, the US Representative is a pretty important office and those races tend to be highly publicized. The drop-down in less publicized races should be much larger. For example, in the 2012 Assembly race in the 24th district, of which Germantown is a part, there was a 20.4% drop-down between Obama votes and those for the Democratic candidate, Shan Haqqi. There was no corresponding drop-down from Romney votes for the Republican candidate, Dan Knodl.
Both voter drop-off and drop-down from presidential election totals are a serious problem for Democratic candidates. If we want to return to clean government, to progressive policies, and to a robust state economy, this issue must be alleviated. Democrats need to implement strong GOTV policies in every corner of the state. The party must stress its entire slate of candidates, not just those at the top of the ticket.
(First published by Paul Adair in Germantown NOW Just Sayin' blog, November 23, 2015)
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